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who is faster? Merc or Ferrari?
Poll ended at Fri Dec 01, 2017 2:35 am
Ferrari 37%  37%  [ 44 ]
Mercedes 63%  63%  [ 74 ]
Total votes : 118
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 3:59 pm 
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KingVoid wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
http://www.motorsportmagazine.com/reports/f1/2017-belgian-grand-prix-report

Mark Hughes saying the Ferrari was quicker. How the SC helped Hamilton with a tyre suffering from blistering and Ferrari looks after its tyres better.

Mark Hughes :lol:

He's an even bigger Hamilton fan than James Allen, and that's some achievement, because the latter was basically chased away from commentary on Formula 1 because he became completely unbearable when Hamilton entered the sport.

You've just named some sources that do nothing different from what I do (listen to interviews and look at laptimes). They just feel the need to put a dishonest spin to it and make it seem like their national hero heroically won with an inferior car.


Knew that would be your excuse :lol: same old

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PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2016: 24th place
2017: 4th place
2018: 12th place

Wins: Spain 2016, Canada 2017, Malaysia 2017
Podiums: 2nd Germany 2016, 3rd Mexico 2016, 3rd China 2018, 3rd Japan 2018, 2nd Mexico 2018


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 4:03 pm 
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Read the comment before that.

"Mercedes was really slowing down at the end of the stint" is a myth. Hamilton gradually build his advantage in the first stint.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 4:03 pm 
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What's the excuse for amus?

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PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2016: 24th place
2017: 4th place
2018: 12th place

Wins: Spain 2016, Canada 2017, Malaysia 2017
Podiums: 2nd Germany 2016, 3rd Mexico 2016, 3rd China 2018, 3rd Japan 2018, 2nd Mexico 2018


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 4:17 pm 
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KingVoid wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
http://www.motorsportmagazine.com/reports/f1/2017-belgian-grand-prix-report

Mark Hughes saying the Ferrari was quicker. How the SC helped Hamilton with a tyre suffering from blistering and Ferrari looks after its tyres better.

Mark Hughes :lol:

He's an even bigger Hamilton fan than James Allen, and that's some achievement, because the latter was basically chased away from commentary on Formula 1 because he became completely unbearable when Hamilton entered the sport.

You've just named some sources that do nothing different from what I do (listen to interviews and look at laptimes). They just feel the need to put a dishonest spin to it and make it seem like their national hero heroically won with an inferior car.

I see, so secretly everyone of these people is simply a Hamilton fan and all that time they spend putting together their analysis is just an elaborate ruse to make him look better by making the Ferrari look worse...


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 4:20 pm 
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Or it could just be that they didn't actually look at the data properly and they are wrong.

After all, it's factually incorrect to claim that Hamilton was struggling at the end of his stint. The lap times quite literally say that his gap to Vettel just before he pitted was the largest it was in that stint (1.8 seconds).


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 4:27 pm 
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KingVoid wrote:
Or it could just be that they didn't actually look at the data properly and they are wrong.

After all, it's factually incorrect to claim that Hamilton was struggling at the end of his stint. The lap times quite literally say that his gap to Vettel just before he pitted was the largest it was in that stint (1.8 seconds).


Wow 1.8

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PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2016: 24th place
2017: 4th place
2018: 12th place

Wins: Spain 2016, Canada 2017, Malaysia 2017
Podiums: 2nd Germany 2016, 3rd Mexico 2016, 3rd China 2018, 3rd Japan 2018, 2nd Mexico 2018


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 4:27 pm 
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KingVoid wrote:
Or it could just be that they didn't actually look at the data properly and they are wrong.

After all, it's factually incorrect to claim that Hamilton was struggling at the end of his stint. The lap times quite literally say that his gap to Vettel just before he pitted was the largest it was in that stint (1.8 seconds).

So this is the type of comment that I really take issue with. It is factually 100% correct that Hamilton slowed at the end of his stints. You are not even looking at his pace at all in anything other than his actual in-lap (a lap in which you push flat out because you are about to dump the tires). You should view an actual lap chart or a graph that is actually designed to show this. There is one in that analysis by James Allen that I posted. I'd post the image if I had ever figured out the convoluted process through which you post images on here. Anyway you can just click on the link and you will see Hamilton's pace dropped off while Vettel's did not. This indicates that Ferrari were better on tire life (one of the keys to race pace). They were considering undercutting Lewis but were wary of Bottas and his ability to hold Vettel up. They were faster.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 4:40 pm 
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The gap between Hamilton and Vettel:

1) At the end of the first stint was 1.8 seconds, the biggest it was throughout the entire first stint.

2) At the end of the second stint was 2.0 seconds, the biggest it was throughout the entire second stint

3) At the end of the race was 2.4 seconds, the biggest it was in the third stint

Mercedes' terrible race pace and tyre management. :uhoh:


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 4:47 pm 
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KingVoid wrote:
The gap between Hamilton and Vettel:

1) At the end of the first stint was 1.8 seconds, the biggest it was throughout the entire first stint.

2) At the end of the second stint was 2.0 seconds, the biggest it was throughout the entire second stint

3) At the end of the race was 2.4 seconds, the biggest it was in the third stint

Mercedes' terrible race pace and tyre management. :uhoh:

You're still not looking at the actual lap chart to see how Mercedes drop off then do a quick in-lap then stop while Ferrari is able to maintain the same pace (even upping the pace) after Mercedes get out of the way.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 4:50 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
KingVoid wrote:
The gap between Hamilton and Vettel:

1) At the end of the first stint was 1.8 seconds, the biggest it was throughout the entire first stint.

2) At the end of the second stint was 2.0 seconds, the biggest it was throughout the entire second stint

3) At the end of the race was 2.4 seconds, the biggest it was in the third stint

Mercedes' terrible race pace and tyre management. :uhoh:

You're still not looking at the actual lap chart to see how Mercedes drop off then do a quick in-lap then stop while Ferrari is able to maintain the same pace (even upping the pace) after Mercedes get out of the way.

That's exactly what happened with Hamilton and Vettel in Spain (only the reverse). Hamilton closed in on Vettel on his inlap (which forced Vettel into an early stop), then Hamilton began lapping slightly faster once Vettel was out of the way.

And yet you also claimed that Ferrari had the best car in Spain, despite the situations being reversed (and unlike Belgium, the cars were evenly matched in qualifying in Spain).


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 5:04 pm 
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KingVoid wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
KingVoid wrote:
The gap between Hamilton and Vettel:

1) At the end of the first stint was 1.8 seconds, the biggest it was throughout the entire first stint.

2) At the end of the second stint was 2.0 seconds, the biggest it was throughout the entire second stint

3) At the end of the race was 2.4 seconds, the biggest it was in the third stint

Mercedes' terrible race pace and tyre management. :uhoh:

You're still not looking at the actual lap chart to see how Mercedes drop off then do a quick in-lap then stop while Ferrari is able to maintain the same pace (even upping the pace) after Mercedes get out of the way.

That's exactly what happened with Hamilton and Vettel in Spain (only the reverse). Hamilton closed in on Vettel on his inlap (which forced Vettel into an early stop), then Hamilton began lapping slightly faster once Vettel was out of the way.

And yet you also claimed that Ferrari had the best car in Spain, despite the situations being reversed (and unlike Belgium, the cars were evenly matched in qualifying in Spain).

That's NOT what happened in Spain. Vettel maintained a 2.5 second lead through the first stint and then pit but was stuck behind Bottas for a while. He lost about 4 seconds there while Hamilton was on the slower tire. That and Ferrari's failure to pit Vettel under the VSC is what cost him the race.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 5:08 pm 
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Migen wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
Migen wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
The fact remains that Ferrari have been faster in more races than Mercedes have. They are not even on race day most of the time. Most of the time Ferrari is quicker. The only races in which Mercedes were quicker during the actual race itself were Canada, Silverstone, Baku and Monza. In all other races Ferrari were quicker or evenly matched.

Does it becomes a "fact" automatically just because its the endorsed opinion of a Hamilton fan?

How things change. There was some outcry after the very 1st race, mainly from Hamilton fans due to Hamilton's failure to overtake Verstappen which ultimately cost him the win in Australia that, its impossible to overtake, track position is king ect... but now you guys are trying hard to strip away the importance of qualifying (track position) out of it when it comes to who has the faster car? Isnt that a little too convenient?

This isn't about groups of fans vs. groups of fans. If you disagree, then explain which of those circuits you think my conclusion was incorrect on.
For instance, you gave both Australia and Spain to Ferrari.
But whilst Vettel could keep in touch with Hamilton in the 1st part of the race in Australia and probably won only due to Hamilton being delayed by Verstappen, in Spain Hamilton too could keep in touch with Vettel and probably won only due to Vettel being delayed by Bottas.

Now without having to go into tiny details like who had the edge in qualies, or the strength of the cars in the later stints of these 2 races which would get us nowhere really... I`d argue that they are mirror copies in the way they panned out, but with the cars (Mercedes & Ferrari) in reversed roles and therefore these 2 races can not possibly go both in favor of the same team (be it Ferrari, or Mercedes)!

sandman1347 wrote:
And for god's sake consider context! There are SOME circuits where track position is king. There are SOME circuits where overtaking is nearly impossible. That doesn't apply to EVERY circuit on the calendar.
Ok, good point, but...
sandman1347 wrote:
I think the Ferrari chassis is fundamentally superior but the Mercedes PU is better (especially in Q3 mode). Only the real engine circuits give Mercedes an edge.
You`d have to consider the context too... that the better chassis is of little use when you dont have the PU power to get the pole in qualies (or a Q3 mode, not as good as Mercedes'), and even more useless in the race days where overtaking on twisty bits is pretty much impossible and where the weaker PU + DRS still does not give you the edge at the end of the strait (as we`'ve seen a few times already this season with a Ferrari trying to overtake Mercedes).

There's a big difference between what happened in Australia and what happened in Spain. In Spain, Vettel was comfortably ahead by 2.5-3.0 seconds. This indicates that he was able to adjust to Hamilton's pace behind him if necessary. In Australia Vettel was often within a second of Hamilton. This indicates that Hamilton was not able to adjust to Vettel's pace and was, in fact, holding him up. Very different circumstances.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 5:28 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
That's NOT what happened in Spain. Vettel maintained a 2.5 second lead through the first stint and then pit but was stuck behind Bottas for a while. He lost about 4 seconds there while Hamilton was on the slower tire. That and Ferrari's failure to pit Vettel under the VSC is what cost him the race.

As per usual, you are spreading misinformation.

Vettel's gap to Hamilton at the end of lap 3 was 2.7 seconds, and that was the biggest the gap reached all stint. Hamilton then gradually reduced the gap to 2.1 seconds on lap 13, and had reduced the gap to 1.8 seconds just before Vettel jumped into the pits (according to the bottom of the live feed).

Then after Vettel stopped, Hamilton upped his pace by 0.2-0.3 seconds/lap, which implies that he had more pace in the bag than what he showed when he was stuck behind Vettel. Hamilton set his best lap on lap 15, two laps after Vettel stopped. This lap (1:25.701) was faster than anything Vettel managed in his opening stint.

Image
source:f1fanatic

The difference between Spain and Belgium was that at least in Spain, the cars were evenly matched in qualifying, so you can call it a fair fight. In Belgium, Mercedes had the clear advantage in qualifying.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 5:33 pm 
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KingVoid wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
That's NOT what happened in Spain. Vettel maintained a 2.5 second lead through the first stint and then pit but was stuck behind Bottas for a while. He lost about 4 seconds there while Hamilton was on the slower tire. That and Ferrari's failure to pit Vettel under the VSC is what cost him the race.

As per usual, you are spreading misinformation.

Vettel's gap to Hamilton at the end of lap 3 was 2.7 seconds, and that was the biggest the gap reached all stint. Hamilton then gradually reduced the gap to 2.1 seconds on lap 13, and had reduced the gap to 1.8 seconds just before Vettel jumped into the pits (according to the bottom of the live feed).

Then after Vettel stopped, Hamilton upped his pace by 0.2-0.3 seconds/lap, which implies that he had more pace in the bag than what he showed when he was stuck behind Vettel. Hamilton set his best lap on lap 15, two laps after Vettel stopped. This lap (1:25.701) was faster than anything Vettel managed in his opening stint.

Image
source:f1fanatic

The difference between Spain and Belgium was that at least in Spain, the cars were evenly matched in qualifying, so you can call it a fair fight. In Belgium, Mercedes had the clear advantage in qualifying.

Yes lets ignore the fact that the cars go faster as the race progresses simply due to fuel-levels running down. Let's also ignore the fact that Vettel lost several seconds behind Bottas then lost several more due to the VSC and yet still finished right behind Hamilton at the checkered flag...


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 6:06 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
Yes lets ignore the fact that the cars go faster as the race progresses simply due to fuel-levels running down.

Hamilton improved his laptimes on old tyres, and immediately began lapping quicker once Vettel was out of the way.

Quote:
Let's also ignore the fact that Vettel lost several seconds behind Bottas then lost several more due to the VSC and yet still finished right behind Hamilton at the checkered flag...

And let's ignore the fact that Vettel had an 8 lap undercut on Hamilton. Let's ignore the fact that Vettel was running the soft tyres in the middle stint while Hamilton was running mediums. Let's ignore the fact that Hamilton actually overtook Vettel on track when the tyres were reversed.

As for Vettel finishing "right behind Hamilton" at the checkered flag, I didn't know that 3.5 seconds was "right behind". It's not like Hamilton had any reason to push after he overtook Vettel. He had to make his soft tyres last a long distance.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 6:12 pm 
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Hamilton overtaking Vettel means nothing. If he did overtake him without gaining all the time through Bottas holding up Vettel and the VSC then fair play.

Spain was a gift from Ferrari.

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2016: 24th place
2017: 4th place
2018: 12th place

Wins: Spain 2016, Canada 2017, Malaysia 2017
Podiums: 2nd Germany 2016, 3rd Mexico 2016, 3rd China 2018, 3rd Japan 2018, 2nd Mexico 2018


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 6:23 pm 
The Mercedes is faster at a few tracks, but so is the Ferrari. The Ferrari is still the better all around package. Easier to set up, not as sensitive to different tracks but works as the best or the second best on most of the tracks.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 7:27 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
Migen wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
Migen wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
The fact remains that Ferrari have been faster in more races than Mercedes have. They are not even on race day most of the time. Most of the time Ferrari is quicker. The only races in which Mercedes were quicker during the actual race itself were Canada, Silverstone, Baku and Monza. In all other races Ferrari were quicker or evenly matched.

Does it becomes a "fact" automatically just because its the endorsed opinion of a Hamilton fan?

How things change. There was some outcry after the very 1st race, mainly from Hamilton fans due to Hamilton's failure to overtake Verstappen which ultimately cost him the win in Australia that, its impossible to overtake, track position is king ect... but now you guys are trying hard to strip away the importance of qualifying (track position) out of it when it comes to who has the faster car? Isnt that a little too convenient?

This isn't about groups of fans vs. groups of fans. If you disagree, then explain which of those circuits you think my conclusion was incorrect on.
For instance, you gave both Australia and Spain to Ferrari.
But whilst Vettel could keep in touch with Hamilton in the 1st part of the race in Australia and probably won only due to Hamilton being delayed by Verstappen, in Spain Hamilton too could keep in touch with Vettel and probably won only due to Vettel being delayed by Bottas.

Now without having to go into tiny details like who had the edge in qualies, or the strength of the cars in the later stints of these 2 races which would get us nowhere really... I`d argue that they are mirror copies in the way they panned out, but with the cars (Mercedes & Ferrari) in reversed roles and therefore these 2 races can not possibly go both in favor of the same team (be it Ferrari, or Mercedes)!

sandman1347 wrote:
And for god's sake consider context! There are SOME circuits where track position is king. There are SOME circuits where overtaking is nearly impossible. That doesn't apply to EVERY circuit on the calendar.
Ok, good point, but...
sandman1347 wrote:
I think the Ferrari chassis is fundamentally superior but the Mercedes PU is better (especially in Q3 mode). Only the real engine circuits give Mercedes an edge.
You`d have to consider the context too... that the better chassis is of little use when you dont have the PU power to get the pole in qualies (or a Q3 mode, not as good as Mercedes'), and even more useless in the race days where overtaking on twisty bits is pretty much impossible and where the weaker PU + DRS still does not give you the edge at the end of the strait (as we`'ve seen a few times already this season with a Ferrari trying to overtake Mercedes).

There's a big difference between what happened in Australia and what happened in Spain. In Spain, Vettel was comfortably ahead by 2.5-3.0 seconds. This indicates that he was able to adjust to Hamilton's pace behind him if necessary. In Australia Vettel was often within a second of Hamilton. This indicates that Hamilton was not able to adjust to Vettel's pace and was, in fact, holding him up. Very different circumstances.

Common, I`m sure you`re more knowledgeable than what you`re making it out to be with this last interpretation of yours.

A 2.1s gap just before Vettel dived into the pits, is NOT a comfortable gap and if Vettel was able to pull away, he would have done so to at least 5+ seconds.
In fact from the end of lap 1 up to the moment Vettel pitted, Vettel actually lost -0.069s

These are the gaps at the end of each lap: L1 -2.207, L2 -2.517, L3 -2.741, L4 -2.550, L5 -2.451, L6 -2.523, L7 -2.591, L8 -2.573, L9 -2.666, L10 -2.476, L11 -2.394, L12 -2.293, L13 -2.138, Lap 14 (Vettel dived into the pits).

The gaps do not suggest that Vettel was able to pull away or keeping Hamilton in check as you`re making it out to be. The fact that as the pit windows was approaching, Hamilton was able to marginally close the gap instead of Vettel being able to increase it, tells me that it wasnt Vettel with a "faster" Ferrari controlling the gap, it was Hamilton with a marginally faster Mercedes controlling it. Hamilton simply chose to avoid dirty-air and follow Vettel 2 seconds adrift in order to preserve car temperatures & tires, due to Mercedes being a little bit more sensitive to dirty-air in comparison with Ferrari... I hope, we are not going to disregard this much talked early-season subject Mercedes cant follow closely in dirty air too now (the same as with the "track position is king"), of course, when it suits!?

Also, had Hamilton sacrificed a little bit from his tires which lasted 7 laps more than Vettel's, dont you think he would have been on Vettel`s neck if he wanted to force the issue in that way?

The bottom line remains that, in Australia Vettel was comfortable at following at ~1.4 seconds behind, whilst in Spain Hamilton was comfortable at following ~2.4 seconds behind due to Mercedes being a little bit more sensitive to dirty-air in comparison with Ferrari... in both cases the leading driver was NOT able to create a substantial gap at will and the gaps remained constant through out the 1st stint. Both races remain very much similar (with Ferrari/Mercedes in reverse roles) and again, you cant possibly award both circuits in favor of the same car.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 7:37 pm 
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F1_Ernie wrote:
Hamilton overtaking Vettel means nothing. If he did overtake him without gaining all the time through Bottas holding up Vettel and the VSC then fair play.

Spain was a gift from Ferrari.

I`d imagine... in exactly the same way as Australia was a gift from Mercedes!?


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 8:59 pm 
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Migen wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
Migen wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
This isn't about groups of fans vs. groups of fans. If you disagree, then explain which of those circuits you think my conclusion was incorrect on.
For instance, you gave both Australia and Spain to Ferrari.
But whilst Vettel could keep in touch with Hamilton in the 1st part of the race in Australia and probably won only due to Hamilton being delayed by Verstappen, in Spain Hamilton too could keep in touch with Vettel and probably won only due to Vettel being delayed by Bottas.

Now without having to go into tiny details like who had the edge in qualies, or the strength of the cars in the later stints of these 2 races which would get us nowhere really... I`d argue that they are mirror copies in the way they panned out, but with the cars (Mercedes & Ferrari) in reversed roles and therefore these 2 races can not possibly go both in favor of the same team (be it Ferrari, or Mercedes)!

sandman1347 wrote:
And for god's sake consider context! There are SOME circuits where track position is king. There are SOME circuits where overtaking is nearly impossible. That doesn't apply to EVERY circuit on the calendar.
Ok, good point, but...
sandman1347 wrote:
I think the Ferrari chassis is fundamentally superior but the Mercedes PU is better (especially in Q3 mode). Only the real engine circuits give Mercedes an edge.
You`d have to consider the context too... that the better chassis is of little use when you dont have the PU power to get the pole in qualies (or a Q3 mode, not as good as Mercedes'), and even more useless in the race days where overtaking on twisty bits is pretty much impossible and where the weaker PU + DRS still does not give you the edge at the end of the strait (as we`'ve seen a few times already this season with a Ferrari trying to overtake Mercedes).

There's a big difference between what happened in Australia and what happened in Spain. In Spain, Vettel was comfortably ahead by 2.5-3.0 seconds. This indicates that he was able to adjust to Hamilton's pace behind him if necessary. In Australia Vettel was often within a second of Hamilton. This indicates that Hamilton was not able to adjust to Vettel's pace and was, in fact, holding him up. Very different circumstances.

Common, I`m sure you`re more knowledgeable than what you`re making it out to be with this last interpretation of yours.

A 2.1s gap just before Vettel dived into the pits, is NOT a comfortable gap and if Vettel was able to pull away, he would have done so to at least 5+ seconds.
In fact from the end of lap 1 up to the moment Vettel pitted, Vettel actually lost -0.069s

These are the gaps at the end of each lap: L1 -2.207, L2 -2.517, L3 -2.741, L4 -2.550, L5 -2.451, L6 -2.523, L7 -2.591, L8 -2.573, L9 -2.666, L10 -2.476, L11 -2.394, L12 -2.293, L13 -2.138, Lap 14 (Vettel dived into the pits).

The gaps do not suggest that Vettel was able to pull away or keeping Hamilton in check as you`re making it out to be. The fact that as the pit windows was approaching, Hamilton was able to marginally close the gap instead of Vettel being able to increase it, tells me that it wasnt Vettel with a "faster" Ferrari controlling the gap, it was Hamilton with a marginally faster Mercedes controlling it. Hamilton simply chose to avoid dirty-air and follow Vettel 2 seconds adrift in order to preserve car temperatures & tires, due to Mercedes being a little bit more sensitive to dirty-air in comparison with Ferrari... I hope, we are not going to disregard this much talked early-season subject Mercedes cant follow closely in dirty air too now (the same as with the "track position is king"), of course, when it suits!?

Also, had Hamilton sacrificed a little bit from his tires which lasted 7 laps more than Vettel's, dont you think he would have been on Vettel`s neck if he wanted to force the issue in that way?

The bottom line remains that, in Australia Vettel was comfortable at following at ~1.4 seconds behind, whilst in Spain Hamilton was comfortable at following ~2.4 seconds behind due to Mercedes being a little bit more sensitive to dirty-air in comparison with Ferrari... in both cases the leading driver was NOT able to create a substantial gap at will and the gaps remained constant through out the 1st stint. Both races remain very much similar (with Ferrari/Mercedes in reverse roles) and again, you cant possibly award both circuits in favor of the same car.

The point you make here is an interesting theory. Not sure about Mercedes being much more sensitive to dirty air but I do actually think I recall hearing something about that. Nonetheless, I think the races were quite different. One thing I'll give you is that there was not much in it on either day but in Australia, Hamilton was totally out of the running once Vettel had the lead wheres in Barcelona, even after being passed, Vettel was right on Hamilton's tail inside of 2 seconds away from him for several laps on the slower tire.

Let's do this: let's take the races where there is some dispute and say that they are debatable. These include:
1. Australia
2. China
3. Bahrain
4. Russia
5. Spain
6. Austria
7. Spa
Then let's take the races where we can pretty much all agree that Mercedes were at least a little quicker:
1. Canada
2. Silverstone
3. Baku
4. Monza
Finally, let's take the races where we can pretty much all agree that Ferrari had at least a little advantage:
1. Monaco
2. Hungary
3. Singapore
4. Malaysia

In what way is the conclusion that Mercedes have the better car supported? If ever there was a season where you would say that the top two teams are closely matched; this is that season.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 9:15 pm 
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Migen wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
Hamilton overtaking Vettel means nothing. If he did overtake him without gaining all the time through Bottas holding up Vettel and the VSC then fair play.

Spain was a gift from Ferrari.

I`d imagine... in exactly the same way as Australia was a gift from Mercedes!?


Did Mercedes pit there car after the VSC while there rival pitted during the VSC?

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2016: 24th place
2017: 4th place
2018: 12th place

Wins: Spain 2016, Canada 2017, Malaysia 2017
Podiums: 2nd Germany 2016, 3rd Mexico 2016, 3rd China 2018, 3rd Japan 2018, 2nd Mexico 2018


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 10:32 pm 
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F1_Ernie wrote:
Migen wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
Hamilton overtaking Vettel means nothing. If he did overtake him without gaining all the time through Bottas holding up Vettel and the VSC then fair play.

Spain was a gift from Ferrari.

I`d imagine... in exactly the same way as Australia was a gift from Mercedes!?


Did Mercedes pit there car after the VSC while there rival pitted during the VSC?

Under the same terms & conditions, same tires compound, same life in the tires (before pit stops, VSCs, being held by Bottas / Verstappen, and before the leading drivers parted ways on different tire compounds), Hamilton could not pull away from Vettel in Australia, in the same way that Vettel could not pull away from Hamilton in Spain.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 10:32 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
Let's do this: let's take the races where there is some dispute and say that they are debatable. These include:
1. Australia
2. China
3. Bahrain
4. Russia
5. Spain
6. Austria
7. Spa
Then let's take the races where we can pretty much all agree that Mercedes were at least a little quicker:
1. Canada
2. Silverstone
3. Baku
4. Monza
Finally, let's take the races where we can pretty much all agree that Ferrari had at least a little advantage:
1. Monaco
2. Hungary
3. Singapore
4. Malaysia

In what way is the conclusion that Mercedes have the better car supported? If ever there was a season where you would say that the top two teams are closely matched; this is that season.

How exactly was Mercedes not at least a little quicker in Austria?

The slower Merc driver was just as fast as the faster Ferrari driver across a race distance (clearly quicker on US, slower on SS).
The faster Merc driver finished only 7 seconds behind the leader despite losing 20 seconds stuck behind the slower Ferrari driver.
The slower Ferrari driver was absolutely nowhere and thoroughly outpaced even by a Red Bull

If the situations were reversed, and Raikkonen beat Hamilton in a straight fight, while Vettel clearly showed the best pace in the field, and Bottas was nowhere and beaten by Ricciardo - would you say that the cars were too close to call?


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 10:37 pm 
Not that is really matters in the context of the championship because of how the races worked out. But Mercedes have at times been the third best car in Malaysia, Singapore and possibly Monaco. I don't think Ferrari have ever gone behind Red Bull this year.

If these races had worked out like normal weekends - they basically would have been 2x a normal weekend in terms of the championship significance.

Vettel/Hamilton winning with the other in 2nd is +7
Vettel winning with Hamilton in 4th or 5th is +13 or +15

It just shows how crucial Ferrari's Singapore/Malaysia weekends have been, these were by far there strongest 2 tracks (in terms of taking points off Mercedes) all season as the Red Bulls got between them.


Last edited by lamo on Mon Oct 02, 2017 11:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 10:42 pm 
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Migen wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
Migen wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
Hamilton overtaking Vettel means nothing. If he did overtake him without gaining all the time through Bottas holding up Vettel and the VSC then fair play.

Spain was a gift from Ferrari.

I`d imagine... in exactly the same way as Australia was a gift from Mercedes!?


Did Mercedes pit there car after the VSC while there rival pitted during the VSC?

Under the same terms & conditions, same tires compound, same life in the tires (before pit stops, VSCs, being held by Bottas / Verstappen, and before the leading drivers parted ways on different tire compounds), Hamilton could not pull away from Vettel in Australia, in the same way that Vettel could not pull away from Hamilton in Spain.


I was talking about the overtake and the circumstances that benefited Mercedes, you have gone off topic.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 10:44 pm 
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lamo wrote:
Not that is really matters in the context of the championship because of how the races worked out. But Mercedes have at times been the third best car in Malaysia, Singapore and possibly Monaco. I don't think Ferrari have ever gone behind Red Bull this year.

If these races had worked out like normal weekends - they basically would have been 2x a normal weekend in terms of the championship significance.

Vettel/Hamilton winning with the other in 2nd is +7
Vettel winning with Hamilton in 4th or 5th is +13 or +15

It just shows how crucial Ferrari's Singapore/Malaysia weekends have been, these were by far there strongest 2 tracks (in terms of taking points off Mercedes) all season and the Red Bulls got between them.


Very true, Hamilton has got very lucky the last two Grand Prix weekends. The gap could have been big between himself and Vettel and I feel the Ferrari will be the car to beat at Japan.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 10:46 pm 
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lamo wrote:
Not that is really matters in the context of the championship because of how the races worked out. But Mercedes have at times been the third best car in Malaysia, Singapore and possibly Monaco. I don't think Ferrari have ever gone behind Red Bull this year.

Mercedes wasn't slower than Red Bull in Singapore on race day. The race was in cold/wet conditions and Ricciardo said afterwards that he could feel that RB had gone the wrong way in terms of setup. I don't think that Merc was slower than RB at Monaco either. Bottas beat them both in qualifying, and got jumped by Ricciardo because he got stuck behind Sainz. Hamilton is normally much quicker than Bottas in the race. If Lewis was on it that weekend, he'd definitely beat the Red Bulls and maybe even challenge Ferrari.

Ferrari was slower than Red Bull in Monza.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 10:57 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
The point you make here is an interesting theory. Not sure about Mercedes being much more sensitive to dirty air but I do actually think I recall hearing something about that. Nonetheless, I think the races were quite different. One thing I'll give you is that there was not much in it on either day but in Australia, Hamilton was totally out of the running once Vettel had the lead wheres in Barcelona, even after being passed, Vettel was right on Hamilton's tail inside of 2 seconds away from him for several laps on the slower tire.
I guess that is because taking advantage of the VSC, also meant that Hamilton had to nurse the "faster" less durable tires for a much longer distance than even Vettel's "slower" but more durable compound.
sandman1347 wrote:
Let's do this: let's take the races where there is some dispute and say that they are debatable. These include:
1. Australia
2. China
3. Bahrain
4. Russia
5. Spain
6. Austria
7. Spa
Then let's take the races where we can pretty much all agree that Mercedes were at least a little quicker:
1. Canada
2. Silverstone
3. Baku
4. Monza
Finally, let's take the races where we can pretty much all agree that Ferrari had at least a little advantage:
1. Monaco
2. Hungary
3. Singapore
4. Malaysia

In what way is the conclusion that Mercedes have the better car supported? If ever there was a season where you would say that the top two teams are closely matched; this is that season.

Apart from Austria which IMO should go to Mercedes... yes, agree with all the rest and your conclusion about this season being very very close in between the front 2 teams.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 11:05 pm 
KingVoid wrote:
lamo wrote:
Not that is really matters in the context of the championship because of how the races worked out. But Mercedes have at times been the third best car in Malaysia, Singapore and possibly Monaco. I don't think Ferrari have ever gone behind Red Bull this year.


Mercedes wasn't slower than Red Bull in Singapore on race day. The race was in cold/wet conditions and Ricciardo said afterwards that he could feel that RB had gone the wrong way in terms of setup. I don't think that Merc was slower than RB at Monaco either. Bottas beat them both in qualifying, and got jumped by Ricciardo because he got stuck behind Sainz. Hamilton is normally much quicker than Bottas in the race. If Lewis was on it that weekend, he'd definitely beat the Red Bulls and maybe even challenge Ferrari.

Ferrari was slower than Red Bull in Monza.


That is comparing the slower Red Bull driver who isn't that good in the wet and who also had a gearbox issue once it dried that cost him 0.5 per lap. I'm pretty sure Verstappen would have beaten Hamilton in Singapore as would Vettel and probably Kimi too.

Bottas lost about 3 seconds behind Sainz, which was only 2 and a half laps. Ricciardo emerged over 8 seconds ahead of Bottas from the pits. But you might be right on Monaco. Hamilton should have done better.

Yes you are right on Monza, Red Bull were ahead of Ferrari there.


Last edited by lamo on Mon Oct 02, 2017 11:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 11:11 pm 
F1_Ernie wrote:
lamo wrote:
Not that is really matters in the context of the championship because of how the races worked out. But Mercedes have at times been the third best car in Malaysia, Singapore and possibly Monaco. I don't think Ferrari have ever gone behind Red Bull this year.

If these races had worked out like normal weekends - they basically would have been 2x a normal weekend in terms of the championship significance.

Vettel/Hamilton winning with the other in 2nd is +7
Vettel winning with Hamilton in 4th or 5th is +13 or +15

It just shows how crucial Ferrari's Singapore/Malaysia weekends have been, these were by far there strongest 2 tracks (in terms of taking points off Mercedes) all season and the Red Bulls got between them.


Very true, Hamilton has got very lucky the last two Grand Prix weekends. The gap could have been big between himself and Vettel and I feel the Ferrari will be the car to beat at Japan.


Vettel winning both with Hamilton 4th and 4th would have given Vettel +38 points from what he is on and Hamilton down 18. 56 point swing. Vettel would lead the WDC by 22 points.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 11:17 pm 
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lamo wrote:
That is comparing the slower Red Bull driver who isn't that good in the wet and who also had a gearbox issue once it dried that cost him 0.5 per lap. I'm pretty sure Verstappen would have beaten Hamilton in Singapore as would Vettel and probably Kimi too.

There is absolutely no chance in hell that Kimi would ever beat Lewis in a wet race these days.

Even if the collision at the start didn't occur, there's a good chance Kimi would have stuck it in the wall somewhere.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 3:00 am 
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KingVoid wrote:
lamo wrote:
Not that is really matters in the context of the championship because of how the races worked out. But Mercedes have at times been the third best car in Malaysia, Singapore and possibly Monaco. I don't think Ferrari have ever gone behind Red Bull this year.

Mercedes wasn't slower than Red Bull in Singapore on race day. The race was in cold/wet conditions and Ricciardo said afterwards that he could feel that RB had gone the wrong way in terms of setup. I don't think that Merc was slower than RB at Monaco either. Bottas beat them both in qualifying, and got jumped by Ricciardo because he got stuck behind Sainz. Hamilton is normally much quicker than Bottas in the race. If Lewis was on it that weekend, he'd definitely beat the Red Bulls and maybe even challenge Ferrari.

Ferrari was slower than Red Bull in Monza.


Don't you think Verstappen would have been quicker than Lewis in Singapore? I think most objective fans would agree to that.
I will give you Monaco, but in Singapore Ricciardo was slightly hampered, and based from what we have seen this year, he doesn't have the race pace that Verstappen usually has.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 5:03 am 
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I honestly have no idea how Singapore would have played out if Verstappen and Vettel did not crash. It would've been fascinating.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 6:36 am 
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KingVoid wrote:
I honestly have no idea how Singapore would have played out if Verstappen and Vettel did not crash. It would've been fascinating.


+1


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 10:31 pm 
Lewis Hamilton - "Suzuka is a much cooler circuit generally and the corners are a little bit different to what we experienced here, and we'll be on a different aero package as well so we should be better there," he explained. "But Mexico where it's full downforce will be a place of concern and we will probably struggle there, but there's not a massive amount of corners so maybe we will be OK.

"I think that's the only one -- this one and Mexico -- that has the high downforce and the others I'm hoping will be more similar to Spa and Silverstone. But it's difficult to say until we get there."

It seems like everywhere you look, people have different opinions of who will be stronger at each track. I guess with hindsight the Mercedes not going well in the high temperatures of Malaysia was in part foreseeable. I personally thought that Vettel and Hamilton would be close for P1 with Red Bull not in the fight. But if we look back to the Mercedes dominance of 2014-2016, the only 2 races they lost on merit were Malaysia 2015 and Singapore 2015. How does everybody see the remaining 5 going in terms of car advantage? I am sticking with the assumption that the last 2 races are more of an anomaly. But if Ferrari are stronger in Japan then they have probably toppled Mercedes overall.

Japan - Mercedes
USA - Mercedes
Mexico - Ferrari
Brazil - Ferrari
AD - Mercedes


Last edited by lamo on Tue Oct 03, 2017 11:37 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 11:09 pm 
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It's all about the tyres for me. Consistently we see low temps and high pressures Mercedes do well and in high temps and low pressures Ferrari do well. RB I have no clue about in this regard.

Spa's really still the anomaly.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 11:14 pm 
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kleefton wrote:
KingVoid wrote:
lamo wrote:
Not that is really matters in the context of the championship because of how the races worked out. But Mercedes have at times been the third best car in Malaysia, Singapore and possibly Monaco. I don't think Ferrari have ever gone behind Red Bull this year.

Mercedes wasn't slower than Red Bull in Singapore on race day. The race was in cold/wet conditions and Ricciardo said afterwards that he could feel that RB had gone the wrong way in terms of setup. I don't think that Merc was slower than RB at Monaco either. Bottas beat them both in qualifying, and got jumped by Ricciardo because he got stuck behind Sainz. Hamilton is normally much quicker than Bottas in the race. If Lewis was on it that weekend, he'd definitely beat the Red Bulls and maybe even challenge Ferrari.

Ferrari was slower than Red Bull in Monza.


Don't you think Verstappen would have been quicker than Lewis in Singapore? I think most objective fans would agree to that.
I will give you Monaco, but in Singapore Ricciardo was slightly hampered, and based from what we have seen this year, he doesn't have the race pace that Verstappen usually has.

I doubt he would have been quicker, Hamilton was on it, later in the race remember that Ricciardo pitted for new inters, Hamilton stayed on old inters and still drove away from Ricciardo.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 11:17 pm 
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The RB couldn't use the kerbs like they did in quali so if Max survives T1 he's probably got Lewis swarming all over him but I doubt he gets passed so it would come down to who had the better strategy/pit stop/in lap or out lap I'd say.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 11:21 pm 
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kleefton wrote:
I will give you Monaco, but in Singapore Ricciardo was slightly hampered, and based from what we have seen this year, he doesn't have the race pace that Verstappen usually has.

Malaysia is literally the first race they've both finished where that was true throughout.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 11:22 pm 
There has been quite a good relative corrleation between 2016 and 2017 with Mercedes strengths and weaknesses.

The Mercedes gap in qualifying during the 2016 races:

Japan -0.300 (Ferrari)
USA -0.510 (RB)
Mexico -0.350 (RB)
Brazil -0.670 (RB)
AD -0.840 (RB)

The gaps were huge in AD and Brazil (its a really short lap there), given how the general pattern has gone from 2016 to 2017. This would put Ferrari likely to be slightly in front of Mercedes in Mexico and Japan. Brazil and AD look like Mercedes tracks, Ferrari haven't got close this year on any track Mercedes enjoyed such an advantage on the year before except for Australia really.


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