TheGiantHogweed wrote:
Lots seeming optimistic about Renault reliability this year. With Red Bull, they were shocking last year. Much worse than the years before. They had less time on track than Honda - yes, really. And given they clearly were worse than Mercedes and Ferrari for most of the season, that is another thing that to me makes Ricciardo or Verstappen pretty unlikely to be able to beat either of the Mercedes drivers. Although I think it will mainly be reliability that effects it. I somehow don't expect Renault to have made a sudden turn around in reliability. Given Ricciardo was exactly 100 points behind Bottas who was in his first season with Mercedes, will the car really manage to be so much better that even Verstappen could manage to beat Bottas in the Mercedes? Of course Mercedes could go downhill but I think that seems unlikely. I think Red Bull will be closer than they were, but not enough to be right at the top. I also think Bottas should be able to improve quite a bit this season which also will make it harder for either of the Red Bull drivers to beat him. He has had time over the winter and very likely has been able to help develop the car to suit his driving style much better. We will see. I'm not saying Bottas is better, but the Red Bull's engine reliability will have to improve significantly to give either driver a chance in my view. Mercedes engines have been brilliant last year. If I remember correctly, Bottas was one of the only drivers with a Mercedes engine that had a single blow out during a race. Reliability will play a huge part in the positions in the championship.
I personally think the top 3 drivers in the championship will be the same as last year, although the order could be different. But I find guessing very difficult so I don't think I'd want to say too much.
I cant find the article, it may of been a user on here - but I believe Renault have alluded to ran 7 times as much as they did prior to last seasons tests, and believe that each PU could now potentially do 7 races. That is an incredible achievement *if* true. Lets not forget that Honda spoke of fantastic dyno results. It was a different story when the engine was in the back of the car.
I do hope it is closer though.. that would bring in the potential for a Red Bull, McLaren, Mercedes and Ferarri championship.. That is a mouth-watering prospect.
That being said, Mercedes are also very quietly confident. But I guess that comes from 4 championships on the trot.. And Toto likes to maintain a professional approach..
They say winter testing doesnt tell us anything, but we were able to deduce a fair bit from last seasons.. I think we will start to get a rough picture after week 1. Excited.